Latest Hurricane Irma Information: Sept. 6th, 8 PM

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Hurricane Irma
Wind chart

Is Hurricane Irma now moving to the West?

Current Information as of 9/6/17 at 8 PM:

Center location: 19.1 N, 66.1 W

Maximum Sustained Winds: 185 MPH

Movement: WNW at 16 MPH

Last two forecast cones back-to-back look identical

Hurricane Irma
Photo Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – 8 PM version
Hurricane Irma
Photo Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – 5 PM version

According to the latest NOAA 5-day Hurricane Irma forecast cone at 8 PM, the track of the hurricane remains unchanged.

However, a hurricane forecaster that operates the website www.spaghettimodels.com, is now advocating patience for the next run of models, citing that Hurricane Irma may be moving west.

Hurricane Irma
Photo Credit: Facebook/Mike’s Weather Page

Speaking of spaghetti models

Hurricane Irma
Photo Credit: South Florida Water Management District

Due to many models being in close proximity of the Florida East Coast, it is difficult to determine how many are forecast to directly make landfall on the Florida peninsula.

A clear lag in modeling

Hurricane Irma
Photo Credit: South Florida Water Management District – 7:06 PM Time Stamp but Indication of Location by the Leeward Islands
Hurricane Irma
Photo Credit: Facebook/Mike’s Weather Page – 7 PM satellite location shows proximity to Puerto Rico not Leeward Islands

The primary observation and question is this: If all 20 of the models are from the Leeward Islands position, but Hurricane Irma is currently located just to the north of the eastern part of Puerto Rico at a much closer position to the island, and at a more southern position than any of the 20 models were previously predicting when it was located in the Leeward Islands, does this discrepancy predict a shift to the west since it is tracking more to the south than previously predicted from its original Leeward Islands position?

Jose and Katia are now both Category 1 hurricanes

Although indicative of the tropics being active, at this time, neither hurricane is being forecast to make direct landfall with the United States.

Several computer models will update between 9 PM and 2 AM, including the GFS and EURO models.

Please rely on the Suncoast Standard for up-to-date information on Hurricane Irma.

Submitted by Lou Newman, Publisher, on September 6th at 8:30 PM

Suncoast Standard (c) 2017. All rights reserved.

 

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