Latest Hurricane Irma information: Sept. 4th, 2 PM update

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GFS update of Hurricane Irma. Photo credit: tropicaltidbits.com

Basic facts about Hurricane Irma from the National Hurricane Center

Center location: 16.7 N, 53.8 W

Maximum sustained winds: 120 MPH

Movement: WSW at 14 MPH

Recent Spaghetti Models

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Recent Hurricane Irma Spaghetti model. Photo credit: South Florida Water Management

12 of 20 forecast models have tracks that directly impact Florida.

Long-term weather models also show Hurricane Irma on the Florida peninsula

Hurricane Irma Citrus County
Photo credit: tropicaltidbits.com

Current long-term GFS MSLP weather forecast modeling shows Hurricane Irma in the Suncoast Region on Monday, September 11th. Some weather forecasters attribute the change in Hurricane Irma’s model tracks to the high pressure system shown over New York state in this particular picture.

Most wind velocity forecasts no longer predict a Category 5 storm

Most wind velocity forecasts now have the storm oscillate between a category 3 and a category 4 hurricane, between now and a potential landfall with the United States. A few days ago, forecasters were predicting winds as high as 180 or 190 MPH. These wind speeds have not been seen yet nor are they currently being predicted by a majority of the wind forecast models.

Models are starting to have divergent views once storm hits Florida

Most models still predict Hurricane Irma making landfall on the Florida Peninsula. However, in the overnight and early morning hours, several models had the storm hitting the southwestern portion of the Florida peninsula and then running up the West Coast or up the spine of the state.

Now, it appears that in some of the new models, Hurricane Irma will threaten the Florida Keys and then dart across Florida in an northeastward trajectory potentially avoiding the Suncoast Region.

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CMC Model of Hurricane Irma. Photo credit: tropicaltidbits.com

Submitted by Lou Newman, Publisher, on September 4th, at 2:51 PM.

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