Latest Hurricane Irma forecast models

GFS of Hurricane Irma. Photo Credit:

Hurricane Irma forecast models appears to place storm track closer to Florida

Sunday, September 3rd, 4:00 PM update on Hurricane Irma

Looking at long-term forecasts, the GFS and CMC models indicate paths either heading towards Florida or making landfall in Florida by September 10th.

Deviation in long-term modeling is apparent, however, not only in location, but also in pressure and wind velocity. As seen in the GFS model below, maximum winds are predicted to be 162 knots, or 186 MPH.

GFS Model of Hurricane Irma. Photo Credit:


CMC Model of Hurricane Irma. Photo Credit:

No way, Tropical Storm Jose?

Receiving little media coverage at the moment, trailing behind Hurricane Irma is another tropical low that the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring. As of 2 PM on September 3rd, the NHC stated that the wave has a 60% chance to form into a tropical storm over the next 5 days. Their statement, in its entirety: 

“A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the
wave axis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.”

Current “spaghetti track” move storm on a more westward track

For some, looking at twenty different long-term hurricane forecast models is overwhelming.

As of the latest September 3rd, 4:00 PM Hurricane Irma update, seven of the 20 tracks have Irma directly hitting the State of Florida. Two tracks have direct impact with the Suncoast Region. Numerous wind intensity forecasts still show Hurricane Irma becoming a strong Category 5 hurricane.

Spaghetti Tracks Hurricane Irma. Photo credit:

Submitted by Lou Newman, Publisher, on September 3, 2017 at 4:05 PM

Suncoast Standard (c) 2017. All rights reserved.

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